As the excitement of the new Champions League season builds up, calcio enthusiasts around the world eagerly anticipate epic clashes between top European clubs. Some of the most interesting group stage fixtures will be the contests between Napoli and Real Madrid. While Madrid have dominated the Champions League over the past decade, there are compelling reasons to believe that Napoli is poised to emerge as group winner.
Group stage Vulnerability
Real Madrid is prone to dropping points in the Group Stage, typically early in the round. In each of their Champions League-winning seasons, Los Blancos failed to win all six of their Group Stage matches. Their last 18-point round occurred in 2014. Here is a list of some of Madrid’s notable recent group stage results, which suggest that Napoli have a strong opportunity to take points off the 14-time Champs:
- 2022: Lost away to RB Leipzig and drew against Shakhtar Donetsk
- 2021: Lost at home to Sheriff Tiraspol
- 2020: Lost to Shakhtar Donetsk home and away, as well as salvaging a last-minute 2-2 draw with Borussia Monchengladbach
- 2019: Lost 3-0 to PSG on the opening day, drew vs Club Brugge en route to finishing group runner-up
- 2018: Lost home and away to CSKA Moscow
- 2017: Lost 3-1 to Tottenham away, then drew 1-1 in the home fixture, leading to a runner-up
finish - 2016: Drew twice with Dortmund and once with Legia Warsaw, finishing runners up in the group.
Went on to beat Napoli 6-2 on aggregate in the Round of 16.
Injuries Piling Up
Real are missing a number of key players. Starting center back Eder Militao and 2022 Champions League Final Man-of-the-Match winner Tibo Courtois are both out for months with torn ACLs.
Top attacking threat Vinicius Jr. has made only two appearances since returning from a hamstring injury that kept the Brazilian out for about a month. Meanwhile, rotational players such as midfielders Dani Ceballos, Arda Güler, and left back Ferland Mendy are currently sidelined with minor injuries, but could return soon.
Antonio Rüdiger will slot in seamlessly for Militao, but Courtois will be tough shoes to fill for newly loaned goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga. Kepa, who’s €80 million transfer to Chelsea was arguably the biggest goalie flop of all time, was bought by Chelsea in 2018 to replace Courtois after his transfer to Madrid and is once again deputizing the Belgian No. 1.
Tactics
Madrid have historically played in a 4-3-3 formation, but had switched to a 4-3-1-2 prior to Vinicius’s injury. With Karim Benzema’s departure, 33-year-old Joselu is the only true number 9 in the squad. Ancelotti faces a selection dilemma with options including moving Rodrygo to the left flank, bringing in former Milan attacker Brahim Diaz, or using one of his many versatile midfielders such as Camavinga or Valverde in a more advanced role.
European DNA
While Milan last year boasted of their European prowess, Madrid are the real team with Champions League in its DNA. Los Merengues have 14 Champions League titles to go along with 34 La Liga trophies. Madrid prioritizes this competition above all else. Key veterans, such as Toni Kroos, Luka Modric and Dani Carvajal, all boast five Champions League titles among a host of other trophies. All three veterans played in the 6-2 aggregate defeat of Napoli back in 2016.
Napoli took an early lead in both games, but went on to lose 3-1. This Madrid team is off to a hot start, sitting on top of La Liga with seven wins and a loss through the first eight rounds. New arrival Jude Bellingham is looking like a better-haired version of Zinedine Zidane.
The return to Naples of former boss Carlo Ancelotti will be an interesting storyline, but Garcia’s Napoli is very different from the 2019 squad Ancelotti managed. Playing Madrid in the Group Stage will be a great opportunity for Napoli to make a statement, the way they did last season with the 4-1 demolition of Liverpool. Fortunately for Napoli, drawing Real Madrid in the Group Stage removes the possibility of playing this super-team in the Round of 16.
